Future Prospects for the Labour Market in the Age of AI, Automation, and Robotisation
Arthur Kryzanovskij
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI, a company now widely recognized, introduced ChatGPT. If we were to revisit the model released at that time, it might strike us as merely a very basic question-answer generator, and actually not even a good one. Since then, AI models have significantly advanced, excelling not only in generating coherent texts but also in logical reasoning, programming, solving mathematical problems, conducting analyses, and even performing creative tasks.
This rapid progress has drawn massive capital investments. The Stargate project, for instance, is prepared to mobilize an astonishing $500 billion by 2029 for building data centers, training AI models, and other related expenses. Meanwhile, the European Union plans to invest approximately €200 billion in AI development, and Saudi Arabia intends to contribute another $100 billion.
While discussions about artificial intelligence began as early as the 1950s when Alan Turing posed the question, "Can machines think?", AI only achieved substantial economic and societal significance after 2022. It is now evident that AI will profoundly influence many aspects of our lives. Here, however, we will specifically explore how AI is reshaping the labour market, what current trends indicate, and what the future may hold.
The World Economic Forum's "The Future of Jobs Report" provides an in-depth analysis of labour market prospects for the upcoming years. Researchers surveyed 1,000 employers worldwide, representing 14 million employees across 22 industries and 55 countries, to precisely forecast these changes.
According to the report, key factors anticipated to most significantly impact the labour market include rapid technological advancements (especially AI and automation), economic instability (inflation and slowing growth), demographic shifts (aging populations in developed nations and growing youth populations in developing regions), and the global pursuit of a greener economy.
Between 2025 and 2030, the study predicts that approximately 22% of current jobs will undergo significant transformation. It anticipates the creation of around 170 million new jobs and the displacement or elimination of approximately 92 million existing roles, resulting in a net increase of around 78 million positions. Though AI and automation will inevitably render many professions obsolete, the report remains optimistic that these losses will be entirely offset by emerging opportunities.
The report underscores the evolving skills essential for the future labour market. Significant growth is expected in skills such as AI and big data analysis, cybersecurity, general technological literacy, and soft skills like creativity, flexibility, stress resilience, and adaptability to changing conditions.
Certain professions are expected to experience notably increased demand, including AI specialists, renewable energy engineers, and healthcare professionals. Conversely, administrative, secretarial, and factory jobs will likely see declining demand.
Although the World Economic Forum's report is comprehensive, its conclusions primarily rely on data reflecting technological developments from the past decade. However, as demonstrated by ChatGPT's rapid emergence in 2022, technological progress can accelerate unpredictably. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic even aim to develop human-level AI by 2027, capable of performing nearly all digitized tasks currently executed by humans. Such a milestone could drastically reshape both the labour market and society at large.
To better understand future developments in AI, examining current AI applications is insightful. Anthropic, a leading AI company, published the Anthropic Economic Index, analyzing millions of anonymized interactions with its AI assistant Claude. The study aimed to uncover prevalent AI use trends.
Findings indicate that most individuals currently utilize AI primarily as an auxiliary tool rather than a full replacement for their roles. Common applications include fact-checking, proofreading, drafting texts, and educational support. Only about 4% of users rely on AI for over 75% of their work tasks, whereas approximately 36% incorporate AI into roughly a quarter of their tasks. Clearly, AI has not fully automated jobs but does facilitate efficiency in specific activities.
Claude’s highest volume of queries originates from professionals in programming and technology sectors, followed by those in media, writing, and content creation. Despite alarming headlines predicting widespread job displacement due to AI, current data suggest otherwise. Nonetheless, given the rapid pace of AI advancements, these trends must be continually monitored.
Predictions regarding AI's future trajectory and labour market impacts vary considerably. For example, the study "In the Shadow of Smith's Invisible Hand" argues that even modest further AI developments could reduce per capita jobs by up to 26% by 2050. The study highlights that maintaining economic stability would require unprecedentedly high job creation rates, a feat deemed challenging to achieve.
Similarly, McKinsey, a leading global management consulting firm, offers insights into labour market shifts driven by AI. Their analysis reveals that generative AI, particularly large language models like ChatGPT, could add between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy.
Generative AI significantly expands automation capabilities beyond basic text generation, encompassing complex tasks like analytical reasoning, creative processes, education, and specialized professional duties. Consequently, AI significantly enhances productivity and economic growth, especially noticeable in knowledge-intensive industries like media, retail, and consumer services.
The manufacturing sector also benefits significantly from AI applications, including product design, predictive maintenance, and quality control, though its impact is often linked to broader automation efforts.
McKinsey's detailed task-level analysis assessed around 2,100 work activities, concluding that generative AI could automate or notably improve 50-60% of human working hours today. This figure could rise to 70% if integrated with existing AI and software solutions. However, rather than eliminating these hours outright, AI is expected to handle routine and repetitive tasks, allowing employees to focus on more valuable activities.
Consequently, administrative, secretarial, and factory positions in the US and European markets are projected to decline significantly, whereas demand for healthcare, STEM, and creative professions will likely surge. By 2030, up to 12 million workers may need to adapt to new roles or workplaces due to AI and automation.
AI will stimulate new products and services, such as personalized education or AI-driven pharmaceutical research, potentially driving substantial job creation. Historical precedents from past technological revolutions support such optimistic outcomes.
McKinsey emphasizes that realizing this positive scenario hinges upon substantial investments in workforce retraining and swift adaptation capabilities. Short-term labour market disruptions are unavoidable, potentially causing uncertainty and social tensions despite long-term benefits.
In conclusion, the growth of artificial intelligence, automation, and robotization will fundamentally reshape the labour market. While optimistic forecasts suggest job losses will be fully offset by newly created roles, alternative scenarios highlight significant economic and social risks. The future likely lies between these extremes, emphasizing the necessity of proactive and efficient retraining to facilitate a smooth transition. Thus, organizations, policymakers, and individuals must closely monitor technological progress and prepare proactively, transforming the rise of AI into an opportunity rather than a challenge.
Sources:
1. https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
3. https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-ai-hub-tech-investment-2024-11?utm_source=chatgpt.com
4. https://courses.cs.umbc.edu/471/papers/turing.pdf
5. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/
6. https://assets.anthropic.com/m/2e23255f1e84ca97/original/Economic_Tasks_AI_Paper.pdf